Estimarea efectelor social-economice ale migraţiei rurale din Republica Moldova

Abstract

An extremely current problem for the Republic of Moldova is the migratory processes of the rural population, expressed by labor flows in this area. The authors consider that labor migration reflects a sufficient degree of certainty in the well-being of the country of origin in the case of outflows of migrants from the country, it most likely indicates problems in the social and economic sphere of the country. In the article, the object of the research consists in the selection of the variables, in terms of econometric methods, which determines the key factors influencing the rural migration level in the Republic of Moldova. The main hypotheses formulated by the authors used in the research are based on the general assumptions of the regression models. Thus, several econometric models of the logarithm of the number of migrants (women, men and both sexes), expressed as a linear, multifactorial regression model in logarithmic form within a panel on the horizon of the 2009-2016 statistical data, have been identified. The results of the processing of models obtained on the basis of the logarithm of the migratory flow in the rural sector of the Republic of Moldova generally coincide with the trends of rural migration in the main countries of the European Union and Russia. At the same time, the authors confirm that the relatively positive impact of migration on the labor market in the Republic of Moldova, manifested by the slight increase of the employment rate and the reduction of the unemployment rate in the country, is countered by the negative negative effects on the size and structure of the labor force, on the degree of participation in the labor market by gender.